How to Outsmart Tariff-Driven Price Hikes: A Smart Shopper’s Survival Guide

This article was originally featured on RetailMeNot and MSN

Earlier this month, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imported goods from many countries across the globe. The sweeping global tariffs were paused, then they were unpaused. Now some of them are paused again, while others are soaring. 

This tariff tit-for-tat is enough to make your head spin! But here’s where it stands now: There’s currently a universal 10% tariff on all countries importing to the U.S. (though that could increase after a 90-day pause) and a whopping 145% tariff on imports from China that’s poised to carve the biggest hole in our budgets.

But as we watch countries levy tariffs back and forth like a tennis match, there’s one important thing to keep in mind: there’s no need to panic! Yes, the tariff-driven inflation is a cause for concern, as is supply chain uncertainty, but right now, most retailers have a couple months-worth of inventory available before the tariffs will really hit their bottom line — and our pockets.

To better understand how we can prepare ourselves, we spoke with retail analysts, shopping experts and operations managers working in the field as they see tariff implications take effect in real time. The good news is that there are plenty of smart, cool-headed shopping decisions that can be made now, as we cautiously brace ourselves for rising prices in the coming months.

How Tariffs Actually Work (And Why They Impact Your Wallet)

When the U.S. places a tariff on another country, the companies importing goods from that country have to pay extra when those goods cross the border into the U.S. The company can choose to cover that cost itself, pass it onto the consumer or — most likely — split it with the consumer. (U.S. News & World Report offers a more in-depth explainer here.) But, how ever the cost-sharing shakes out, the U.S. government ultimately collects that additional revenue.

For consumers, this means that the latest tariff on China would require U.S. companies to pay 145% of the imported goods’ declared value (i.e., the manufacturing and shipping costs). On the bright side, the tariff is applied before companies mark up the goods to their actual retail price. But still, such a steep tariff will result in a more noticeable uptick in prices than the comparatively measly 10% tariff on Chinese imports that went into effect earlier this year.

U.S. tariffs placed on other countries will have the most direct impact on American consumers. But, if retaliatory tariffs should come into play, U.S. companies exporting goods could see a loss in revenue as other countries pull back their orders, leading to a broader economic impact.

Price Surges to Watch Out For

If the tariffs stand as they are at the time of writing this article, it’s expected that consumers will begin to feel the effects within the next few months — perhaps even as soon as May when imports (primarily from China) arrive at the country’s largest ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California. 

But it’s not just tariffs that are driving up prices. 

“Most consumer brands have inventory in the U.S. to sustain them for several months, if not longer,” says Javier Palomarez, founder and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council. “That said, many also had inventory waiting at offshore ports that couldn’t ship prior to the recent tariff increases. Brands are now seeing double, if not triple, the cost to collect necessary items at customs, many of which simply don’t have the liquidity to absorb these overnight changes. These increased costs may quickly be reflected at the register as brands look for ways to cover the abruptly magnified costs to bring an item to market.”

While these effects will be felt across the board, these shopping categories will be hit harder than others:

Electronics

Since the announcement of increased tariffs on China, some of the most significant price surges have been expected on tech and electronics like smartphones, televisions and laptops. It even spurred Nintendo to announce that preorders for its highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 (slated for release on June 5) would be put on pause until the company could reassess the tariff situation. 

“I’ve already noticed 15 to 20% increases on items like smartphones, laptops and gaming consoles… [and] just last month, I watched several major retailers bump their TV prices by $50 to $100 across the board,” says Andrew Lokenauth, founder at TheFinanceNewsletter.com. With more than 15 years of experience in retail analysis, he cautions that manufacturing costs in this sector are particularly sensitive to tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

However, a slight reprieve came on April 12 when the Trump administration announced that smartphones, laptops and some other electronics are temporarily exempt from the latest tariffs on Chinese imports — though separate tariffs on semiconductor chips (a key component to electronics) are set to be announced on April 14 and expected to go into effect within a month or two.

Appliances

Similar to electronics, everything from major home appliances to small kitchen appliances are susceptible to manufacturing in China, and can experience longer shipping times too. John Serrano, Operations Manager of The Trade Table, a leading online home improvement store, warns that ranges, range hoods, ovens, cooktops and even outdoor grills are already starting to increase in price due to the fact that most use imported electronic controls and stainless steel from other countries. He notes that his suppliers have sent early warnings about the vulnerability of HVAC systems, water heaters and plumbing as well.

Toys

The vast majority of children’s toys are manufactured in China and — though they were previously exempt — are now completely vulnerable to the massive tariffs currently in place. 

Furniture

The prices of furniture made exclusively in the U.S. should hold relatively steady, but many companies rely on materials from outside of the country, which makes the industry much more susceptible to supply chain challenges in addition to the high tariffs. Patio furniture, in particular, may see a rise in cost as a fair portion of it is made in China.

Clothing

Major stores like Walmart, Target and Old Navy rely heavily on clothing made outside of the U.S., so the big bargains we’re used to seeing may vanish in the coming weeks (or longer). It may also be time to kick that Shein and Temu habit as those rock-bottom prices could soon be sky-high as all of that stock is shipped from China.

According to Niki English, Director of Brand Development at AJG Fashion Consulting, we could expect to see noticeable price increases on apparel within the next three to 12 months as brands adjust their pricing to offset these tariffs and any potential production delays tied to supply chain issues.

“We always want to support domestic production,” English says of AJG’s advice to fashion brands. “However, many materials are still imported from overseas, and the cost of U.S. manufacturing remains much higher than overseas, even with tariffs included. It will take time for the fashion and apparel manufacturing industry to find a new balance of cost of goods, consumer demand, and manufacturing costs.”

Beauty and Skincare

While they might seem less susceptible right now, this new wave of tariffs is going to hit beauty and skincare faster than most consumers realize, says Susannah Dellinger, founder of Bright Beauty Collective, a national retail sales agency that helps beauty brands scale successfully in Sephora, Ulta, Bluemercury, Bloomingdale’s, Bergdorf Goodman, and beyond.

“Almost nothing in beauty is made 100% in the U.S., and that includes the parts we never think about: the foil on under-eye masks, the pump on your serum, the cap on a lip gloss, even the box it all comes in. A huge portion of that comes from China,” she says, noting that smaller brands will feel this squeeze first. “Most [brands] don’t stockpile packaging. They order just enough to stay lean. So, shoppers will likely start seeing price hikes by the end of April.”

Lokenauth agrees, warning that the complex international supply chains for ingredients and packaging materials means that we’ll likely see 10 to 15% increases on beauty items by summer.

Spices, Cocoa and Coffee

Produce imported from Mexico and Canada is exempt from the tariffs, but so many of our everyday grocery items come from plants that simply do not grow well on U.S. soil. We get vanilla extract imported from Madagascar. We source cocoa beans from West Africa and coffee from Brazil, Colombia and Southeast Asia. Spices are imported from all over the world. For now, these countries are only subject to a 10% tariff, but that could change when the pause is lifted in July.

Smart Shopping Strategies: What to Buy Now

Here’s your shortlist of what to buy now:

• Smartphones

• Laptops

• AirPods and headpohones

• Major appliances (like refrigerators, air conditioners)

• Small appliances (like blenders, air fryers, fans)

• Patio furniture

• Toys (even if you have to buy them now and gift them come holiday season)

• Refillable skincare and makeup (buy sets and bundles of essentials and favorite brands and products now!)

• Apparel (stick with the staples since trends may come and go)

Knowing where the prices may rise is one thing, but knowing what to prioritize now to beat those increases is another. Based on the high tariffs on China, right now would be a smart time to purchase replacements for any aging tech like smartphones, laptops and AirPods. You should also buy major home appliances like refrigerators if warranted.

“If you’ve been thinking about replacing [an appliance] or finishing a renovation, now is the time to secure it,” advises Serrano. “Buying now doesn’t just lock in your price. It also helps you avoid delays caused by stock availability or shipping slowdowns.”

When it comes to big-ticket items, however, just be sure they are purchases that you were already planning to make sometime this year. Otherwise, you’re not really saving yourself money.

Small appliances like air fryers and Vitamix blenders, and items like fans and air conditioners would also be smart buys before the summer. You may want to take advantage of early spring sales on patio furniture since so much of that is made in China, too.

Some companies — like MGA Entertainment, the maker of Bratz and L.O.L. Surprise! Dolls — are admitting that they will need to enact “high double-digit” price hikes, per CNN’s reporting, so you might want to think about some really early holiday gift shopping.

And as for those hoping to beat the tariffs on beauty buys, Dellinger recommends opting for refillable skincare and makeup products whenever possible, and buying sets and bundles from your favorite brands right now. She notes that bundled pricing is often slower to change than individual items and often includes a built-in discount, so it’s a smart way to lock in today’s prices before they quietly rise. And fans of skin care tech and beauty brand Foreo should take note that the brand has announced it is raising the price of products by 20% to 30% starting April 22. Get your essentials now.

Other Budget-Savvy Tips to Beat Rising Costs

While rising costs may become unavoidable in the coming months, there are plenty of smart ways to shop and save, including: 

• Cash back offers and promo codes. We compile all of the latest promo codes for your favorite stores right here at RetailMeNot. Even better, you can earn cash back on your purchases — sometimes as much as 25%, up to $50! Keep an eye on our latest and greatest cash back offers here and, if you haven’t already, cash in on a $5 bonus when you sign up now.

• Comparison shopping. You can often find the same (or very similar) product on multiple sites, so it’s worth taking few extra minutes to search the sites individually, or take an image of the product and drag-and-drop it into Google Images to find out which site offers the best deal. Prices can also fluctuate from day to day — especially on Amazon — so price-tracking apps like CamelCamelCamel are invaluable tools to help you decide whether to buy now or wait a bit.

• Seasonal sales. If a purchase isn’t urgent, you might choose to wait for upcoming holiday sales. First up will be Mother’s Day sales, often focused on apparel, home goods and even baby gear. Then, Memorial Day sales on patio furniture, grills, outdoor equipment and mattresses. Often pricey items that are a bit more susceptible to the tariffs. However, if the tariff tit-for-tat only heightens in the coming weeks, it may be better to ride it out and see if things settle down by the next big shopping holiday around the Fourth of July. You can often find great deals on apparel, appliances, mattresses, tech and back-to-school essentials then.

• Loyalty programs and credit card offers. Retailers’ loyalty and rewards programs are usually completely free and allow you to earn points on every purchase you make, which you can then redeem for savings on future purchases. They also grant perks like early access to sales, free shipping, and free gifts or extra savings for your birthday. (We love the loyalty programs at Sephora and Ulta, Target, Bath & Body Works, Kohl’s and Petco, just to name a few.) And if you shop a store frequently, a store credit card might make sense as they usually offer extra savings on every purchase and other money-saving perks. But keep in mind that opening a new card also dings your credit score, so use that tip sparingly!

• Stacking deals. You rarely ever have to choose just one method to save on your purchases. Stack your savings by waiting for a sale, applying as many promo codes as a retailer will allow, logging into your loyalty account to earn points and leveraging RetailMeNot cash back opportunities. Then, rack up even more earnings post-purchase with receipt-scanning apps like Fetch. These allow you to earn points for in-store purchases (and online purchases at Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, Sam’s Club and more). You can also cash in those points for gift cards to your favorite retailers. That’s five different ways you can bring down the cost of every purchase you make, and there’s typically no restriction to utilizing them all at once.

• Mindset shift. Perhaps the most beneficial savings tip of all is to practice shifting your mindset and taking a beat before making a purchase. It’s easy to make impulse buys — especially when a sale seems really good — but there’s greater long-term value in opting for higher-quality investment pieces rather than what’s cheap, trendy and often low-quality. Separate “want” from “need,” and try not to be swayed by the hype of a sale — or the undue panic that may come along with this current wave of tariffs.