Kamala Harris’ Hispanic problem

This article was originally featured on Deseret News and Yahoo! Finance

Harris’ Hispanic problem

Tonight, Trump will participate in a town hall on Univision, the top Spanish-language news TV network in the U.S., with a specific goal: to chip away at Harris’ lead among Hispanic voters.

The inconvenient truth for Harris’ campaign? Trump may already be well on his way.

At present, Harris is on track to perform worse among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in two decades: A new New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris at 56% among Hispanic voters, compared to Trump’s 37%.

The good news for Democrats is that Hispanics, who have long been a solidly Democratic voting bloc, will make up nearly 15% of the electorate this November — a record high. The bad news is Democrats have been slowly losing support from Hispanics in each of the last several cycles. Barack Obama won 71% of Hispanic voters in 2012; since then, Hillary Clinton won 68% and Joe Biden won 62%.

Harris, who currently sits in the mid-50s among Hispanics, is set to join John Kerry (in 2004) as the last Democratic nominee to finish below 60%.

It could be much worse, of course. Earlier this year, when Biden was atop the ticket, Democrats were in a dead heat with Trump for the Hispanic vote. (One poll, with a small sample size, showed Trump up by 6 percentage points.) Harris managed to reverse those trends, expanding her lead among Hispanics to nearly 20 percentage points. But she still sits far behind previous Democratic nominees’ performances.

Why the shift? Part of it may be the natural result of the changing demographic that is the “Hispanic voting bloc.” Most Hispanics living in the U.S. are not immigrants, and Hispanic voters are now mostly U.S.-born, English-speaking individuals.

I’ve written about Harris’ acknowledgement of this, marked by a messaging shift toward Hispanics: instead of talking about immigration, she talks almost exclusively about the economy. That’s something many Hispanic strategists and pundits, including Mike Madrid, have begged Harris to do for months, and she continued it in her Univision town hall last week. Polls suggest that Latinos, now the largest minority group in the country, care about the issues that everyone else cares about. Harris’ change in message seems to acknowledge that economic policy, not identity politics, will do more to win this group over.

A new survey seems to back this up. Members of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council were asked which ticket — Harris/Walz, or Trump/Vance — “better represents the interests of your community.” A majority sided with Harris. But when asked who is better suited to handle economic issues, the Hispanic respondents — largely comprised of small business owners — overwhelmingly backed Trump (65%) over Harris (35%).

When asked who they would vote for in this year’s election, Trump led 57% to 41%.

Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, said the survey showed Harris’ ability to relate to Hispanic voters. “I think what they’re saying is, ‘We are Hispanic business owners, and as Hispanics, we can more easily relate to an African American woman who is the daughter of an immigrant than we could to a white billionaire,’” he said.

But that isn’t enough to win their votes, he said: “It’s like, ‘I’m almost rooting for you, but I’m not going to vote for you. I’m going to vote for the guy that I believe is going to do better for the economy and therefore do better for my business.’”

When the same poll was conducted in May, Trump led Biden by 10 percentage points.

In an effort to shore up support among Hispanics, the Harris campaign held a series of Hispanic Heritage Month events across the Southwest. In Arizona, the campaign launched an “Hombres con Harris” coalition; in Nevada, it hosted “Café con Latinos” events in coffee shops.

But Harris looks vulnerable enough among Hispanics that one Republican group is dumping money into a last-ditch gamble in a deep-blue state. In New Mexico, where a Republican presidential candidate has not won since 2004, Election Freedom Inc. sees an opening with the state’s Hispanic voters, who make up a plurality — 49% — of the population.

The group is pouring a “significant, seven figure investment” into advertising there, according to Derek Dufresne, a consultant for the group. The English and Spanish ads will run on TV and digital platforms.

At present, Harris leads by 8 percentage points in New Mexico, but Election Freedom Inc. senior adviser Jay McClesky said their internal polls show the race is much closer. One poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, shows Harris ahead by four points in New Mexico.

“We have seen the race tighten to just outside the margin of error, as President Trump has actually pulled ahead among Hispanic men,” he said. “We believe this trend very much puts New Mexico in play as we enter the final stretch.”