Will America have a labor shortage soon? This former Mexican president has the answer.
This article was originally written by Bryan Schott for the Salt Lake Tribune and can be found on their website here.
It’s not often that former heads of state journey to Utah, let alone three on the same day. Former U.S. President George W. Bush, former Mexican President Vicente Fox and former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper all took the stage at the Grand America for the “Crossroads of the World” international trade conference on Thursday.
Bush made four trips to Utah as president, most notably for the opening ceremonies of the 2002 Winter Olympics. Thursday’s event was his first public appearance in the state since 2010 when he signed copies of his book at a Costco in Sandy.
While Bush’s talk was closed to the media, others like Fox, Harper and Ambassador Jeff Flake spoke publically about immigration, the global economy and even Utah’s new NHL team.
Fox, who served as President of Mexico from 2000 to 2006, took to the stage to discuss international trade and immigration. Fox noted that Mexican labor has been a major boost to America’s economy — but warned that it was not likely to continue.
“Mexico has provided a lot of labor to this nation. The 45 million Mexicans who are here produce a three times larger gross product than the 120 million people in Mexico. But, we’re at full employment today, and migration into the United States has reduced significantly coming from Mexico,” Fox said. “One day real soon, by 2030, Mexico will not have the capacity to provide labor to this nation.”
Fox said because of that, the U.S. will have to turn to migrants from Central America, Latin America and the Caribbean to meet those labor needs, which is why it’s crucial to solve the immigration issue sooner rather than later.
“Labor is the number one issue, and migration, unfortunately, has not been dealt with. Half of those coming into the United States come because there are jobs, but that half is coming illegally. That’s something we have to correct,” Fox said.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said businesses must confront the end of what he called “naive globalism,” which he described as the post-Cold War belief that the differences in political systems around the world were a negligible risk to businesses.
“We now know that assumption was totally wrong,” he said. “In fact, it was foolish.”
“Now, we’re seeing a deglobalization trend take shape because businesses understand there are real risks all over the world. There are supply chain risks. There are health risks and pandemics. There are national security risks. There are political risks,” he told the audience. “But the wrong thing to draw from that is to pull everything back to your country or your state.”
Both Harper and Fox took note of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in their remarks. Fox was incredulous that the two main contenders, Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, were in their late 70s and early 80s.
“We need to get to this nation young leadership. You have two adults around 80 years old running. I’m 82, but I retired,” Fox said to laughter and applause.
“We need young, brilliant, aggressive leaders. When that happens, you will notice the change, believe me,” Fox added.
Harper said Trump “upset the apple cart” when it comes to assumptions on international trade.
The former prime minister said he partially agrees with Trump’s approach to China and the way Western nations admitted China back into global trade in 2000 was “absolutely terrible.”
“It allowed the Chinese to set the terms of trade in ways that have been predatory and allowed them to rack up ever larger surpluses that they are using for purposes that go way beyond the prosperity of their people and are injurious to our interests,” Harper said.
Where Harper says he disagrees with Trump’s approach to international trade is lumping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in with other “bad trade deals” for the U.S.
“Rather than seeing Canada and Mexico as trade adversaries, what the United States government should be doing is seeing us as potential allies and really orienting ourselves in a way to deal with the common adversary we all face, which is China and our need to get much better trade relations with the Chinese state,” Harper said.
Because he’s Canadian, one moderator could not resist asking Harper about Utah’s recent inclusion into the list of cities with a National Hockey League team and whether Utah was likely to hoist the Stanley Cup in the near future.
“I was prime minister for 10 years and we did not win the Stanley Cup. In fact, a Canadian team has not won the Stanley Cup in over 30 years now, which is unprecedented,” he replied. “For those of you who have probably forgotten your history, the Stanley Cup was originally the National Hockey Championship of Canada. It’s a Canadian trophy, so we are truly exporters.”
Immigration and international trade weren’t the only issues at the forefront of Thursday’s talks.
Dr. Richard Haass, a president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations who helped guide the peace process in Northern Ireland, warned climate change has the potential to be a major disruptive force globally.
“It’s quite possible before this century is done, the defining issue of our time could be climate change,” Haas said. “It will affect every aspect of life as we know it because it will no longer be life as we know it.”
Haass also said it was vital for America to continue to support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, adding the opposition from some Republicans in Congress was baffling.
“I see it as somewhere between irresponsible and reckless. Ukraine has fought valiantly with Western help, and they’ve held and frustrated Russia against all odds,” he said. “What these people, mainly on the right, have done is essentially snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. We have got to re-open the spigot and get help to Ukraine.”
Former Republican U.S. Senator Jeff Flake, who is now the Biden administration’s Ambassador to Turkey, said it’s been painful to watch isolationism creep into American politics, particularly among some in his own party.
“I think it’s a kind of a malignant strain of politics right now that we can become more prosperous and more secure by looking inward and ignoring the world. I think that’s completely wrong and history has proven that over and over again,” Flake said. “We are more prosperous, more secure, more content when we have friends and allies who share our values and we work closely with them.”
Gov. Spencer Cox, embracing his role as chief cheerleader for the state, used his time at the podium to talk about Utah’s reputation for being conducive to business.
“People ask what makes Utah the number one state for business in the country, and I tell them it’s the governor,” Cox, who’s currently running for reelection, joked. “Utah is thriving. We’ve been recognized as the best state to start a business, the happiest state in the nation, the fastest growing state in the nation, and more growth per capita than anywhere else in the country. We’ve led the nation in GDP growth over the last 10 years.”
In a special moment, former Utah Governors Gary Herbert, Jon Huntsman and Mike Leavitt joined Cox on stage to honor Scott Anderson, who recently retired as the CEO of Zions Bank.